Oil price approaching 1980 highs (inflation corrected)

[tommac95]

Two news articles comment that (1)speculation , (2)the depreciating dollar ,(3)the supply/demand 'mismatch' and (4) political insecurity ... may well help oil to $100/barrel in near future.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071019/bs_ft/fto101920070302459290 {FT}
Excerpt:
"Until there is a clear prospect of the [supply-demand] gap being filled, then the course is set for the market to take out $90, $100 and $110 in fairly quick succession," Mr Norrish said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/ {AP}
Excerpt:
"We don't think industry fundamentals support oil prices near $60 (a barrel), let alone $90, but with excessive speculation and lack of government scrutiny, prices could go even higher, before they crash, eventually, in our view," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., in a research note.

[DA BIG ONE]

Today one silver dollar is valued at about $15. +- = 5 gallons of fuel while it requires 15 FRN's+- for same amount of fuel.

+- is ever so slight in penny value.

[93GMCSierra]

Quick question, when you say inflation corrected do you mean that the price of wages has gone up too? cuz the fed min wage has not changed since 1998, till recently its on its way to going up to $7.25 but that is over a 2 year projected time frame.

[JeepSJ]

As soon as the media asshats stop propagating the "we need more oil" crap and focus on the real issue of "we need more refining capacity", then the oil market will settle down. People don't realize that we sell off a lot of the oil that we pull out of the North Slope fields.

[Dakster]

I thought we long broke the 1980's adjusted price for a barrel of oil. The media said it was around $80-$81 a barrel. Of course, that was when oil was reaching $65+. When it hits a sustained $90/barrel the 1980's adjusted price will be $110/barrel, and so on... I do believe around $3.50/gal was the price point match as well.

I like a multi-faceted approach to this "crisis." Bio-Diesel, Ethanol, Hybrid (gas, diesel, bio, and ethanol), pure electric, and hydrogen. H2 is further off because of infrastructure issues. We can't rely on just one "fuel" anymore.

Problem is that I can't say, let's all go to Bio-Diesel. There is not enough oil crop or waste oil to make enough of it. Plus, growing for fuel raises food prices, which raises the price of the food. We are already starting to see this with ethanol.

Jut my .02 -

I think that $5/gal is the tipping point for most people to change their car buying and driving habits. It will force the "people" to buy more fuel efficient vehicles; therefore forcing the manufacturers to create more fuel efficient models. I know that I will rethink my driving vacations when gas/diesel is $5/gal. and flying is already too expensive for my family.

[93GMCSierra]

For a very large percentage of Americans the current price is already too high, with the low wages and High cost of living something has got to give, an unfortunately in most area's of the midwest any how driving is the only way to work, an getting a new enough car to get high fuel economy is tough enough, what is getting left out by the high price of fuel? Clothes for the kids, maybe food?
As the cost of utility's also climbs, I know its very difficult to afford to pay just the monthly bills, I for example am fairly lucky in that my Cable, which is including internet is fairly low for a national average or I would not even be able to be on this forum.

[Dakster]

93 - I hear you, loud and clear. I have alot of family members that live on the edge and the high price of gas today is killing them too. Thankfully, the wife and I have good jobs. I don't worry about paying for the basics anymore. I didn't start off life that way and it has taken a long time to get there. Roman noodles, kraft maccaroni and cheese were common dinners at the time. Thankfully, my kids shouldn't have to go thru that. (Although it teaches an important lesson on the value of a dollar and ingrains a strong work ethic)

However, it is like anything else you have to start improvements in the fleet now, so that it trickles down. If tomorrow 70 MPG cars were common from every manufacturer, it would be a start. Yes, it would take awhile for everyone to be able to "afford" one, but at least you know one would be coming your way. If you think about it, almost every car on the road today has airbags and ABS (Except my company car, which ABS stands for Avoid Braking Short)

The Toyota prius at its current price, compared to a Corolla, would take the average loan period (5 years) to break even. Personally, I can't stand either vehicle. For the high MPG comuter car we went with the diesel Jetta. I don't get 50 in the city, but mid 30's is still pretty darn good.

And yes, I too live in the area of lackluster public transportation.

[93GMCSierra]

Yes it does start somewhere, I do know what you mean about trickle down effect too, however I still dont have one new enough to have air bags, lol my diesel might have anti-lock brakes but it sure dont seem like it.
93 is the newest vehicle I have I also have a mid 80's.

[Dakster]

I actually miss my late 80's and early 90's mustangs. I couldn't kill them. No ABS or Airbags either. (I sold my 92 'stang maybe 3 years ago). Only problem is that without ABS and traction control they are downright dangerous in the rain. I could only imagine them in the snow. Now with a medium size family (2 kids) a 2-door car is out of the question.

Anyways, hopefully there will be some relief. I would sure hate for fuel price to bring us into a recession. It is a cyclical effect that goes into a feedback loop. i.e. High fuel $ means you have less "play" money, it costs more to create and ship product to market driving up the price of the product, now you have even less money to spend, which causes even less product to be pruchased and creates job losses, so even less commodities and luxury items are bought, etc..